empty
11.03.2025 04:47 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 11: A Dull Monday After All

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair mostly traded sideways on Monday, although the euro made attempts to push upward throughout the day. The only significant macroeconomic event was the industrial production report from Germany, which came in slightly stronger than expected. However, this report, like all the events from the previous week—whether strong or weak—did not alter the overall trend, as the euro continued to rise. We believe that the industrial production data from just one of the 27 EU countries had limited impact on the pair's movement.

Overall, the euro remains near its multi-month highs. The pair is not moving downward, while upward momentum lacks any new tariff announcements from Donald Trump. Although the European currency has surged, market participants are uncertain about the next steps. If the U.S. economy heads toward a recession, the dollar should be sold. However, it's unclear if that will happen. Similarly, if Trump imposes new tariffs, the dollar should also be sold, but that remains to be seen. There are currently too many uncertainties. Given the state of the European and American economies, it's puzzling why the dollar has weakened. While Donald Trump is a significant factor, there are no clear negative indicators in the U.S. economy at this time.

Several trading signals appeared on the 5-minute timeframe, but the price largely moved sideways throughout the day in a choppy manner, ignoring the 1.0843 level entirely. The first two signals turned out to be false, but they were not unprofitable, as the price moved at least 15 pips in the right direction each time. Any subsequent signals were best ignored.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated March 4. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for an extended period; however, bears have recently gained the upper hand. Four months ago, the number of open short positions held by professional traders sharply increased, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time in a long time. This indicates that the euro is now being sold more frequently than it is being bought. Nevertheless, the advantage of the bears is quickly diminishing following Trump taking office as the U.S. president.

Currently, we do not observe any fundamental factors that would support a strengthening of the euro. However, one significant factor has emerged that is contributing to the decline of the U.S. dollar. It is possible that the pair will continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but the 16-year downtrend is unlikely to reverse quickly.

At this point, the red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating that the market trend is now neutral. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "non-commercial" group increased by 2,500, while the number of short positions decreased by 12,800. As a result, the net position increased by another 15,300 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

In the hourly time frame, the price continues its steep upward trajectory. We believe that a decline will resume in the medium term due to differences in ECB and Fed monetary policies, but it's unclear how long the market will continue reacting to the Trump factor. The current movement is pure market panic, and its final destination remains unknown. Traders ignore everything except Donald Trump's statements, and the dollar is being sold at any price. The movement is nearly vertical.

For March 11, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0623) and Kijun-sen (1.0692) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when identifying trade signals. Setting a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves at least 15 pips in the correct direction to minimize potential losses in case of a false signal is crucial.

On Tuesday, the only significant event will be the JOLTs job openings report in the U.S. It's hard to say whether traders even care about this report right now. Regardless of its outcome, what can we expect from the dollar—growth or a 30-40 pip move that won't change anything? The key issue is understanding the dollar's long-term outlook, which largely depends on Donald Trump.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 19th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2980 level as a key area for making market entry decisions. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A break

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:02 2025-03-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 19th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0906 level as a key point for making market entry decisions. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A break

Miroslaw Bawulski 17:59 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair closely mirrored the movements of the EUR/USD pair. The British pound often follows the euro

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed an inclination to rise again. A closer examination of intraday movements reveals that the pair

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 19: Trump Is More Important Than the Fed and BoE

The GBP/USD currency pair again showed an upward movement on Tuesday despite having no fundamental reasons. There were no significant events or reports in the UK, and in the second

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 19: Slow but Steady Rise Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Tuesday but remained within a limited range, which can be considered a sideways channel. There are currently two channels: sideways

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 18th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2994 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:30 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 18th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0904 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:25 2025-03-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair also attempted to resume its upward movement and even broke through the latest local high within

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement but remained within a sideways channel between the levels of 1.0804

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.