empty
11.03.2025 11:05 AM
Recession Fears Weigh on the U.S. Stock Market (Expect Further Decline in CFD Contracts #NDX and #SPX)

On Monday, the U.S. stock market plunged, dragging down European trading platforms and Asian markets in early Tuesday trading. Trump's trade wars remain a central theme, fueling uncertainty among investors.

Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the U.S. economy, which is showing signs of sliding into a recession amid persistently high inflation. Recent economic data further reinforce these fears. However, President Donald Trump dismissed concerns raised by the business community regarding the uncertainty surrounding his tariff policies. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, he acknowledged potential "disruptions," but stated that "the government is completely fine with it."

As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices fell between 2.08% and 4.00% on Monday, deepening the ongoing correction in the U.S. stock market.

Weak Labor Market Data Add to Market Anxiety

Additional concerns about the state of the U.S. economy arose after Friday's employment report. While the report showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 151,000 new jobs, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%. The prevailing pessimism led to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield below 4.2%. This, combined with growing interest in safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar, underscores the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Although neither the dollar nor gold showed significant gains, price stabilization in these assets suggests that investors are seeking safety.

Key Market Drivers: Recession Risks and Tariff Wars

The primary concern remains the risk of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession, exacerbated by Trump's trade wars and persistently high inflation.

Market Rebound or a Temporary Correction?

At the European market open, futures on the three major U.S. stock indices showed positive momentum, while crude oil and other commodity assets also rebounded after Monday's sell-off.

The key question: Is this the beginning of a recovery, or just a temporary rebound?

At this point, it is difficult to say. Trump's economic policies remain unchanged, and there are no visible signs of improvement or positive outcomes. Therefore, the correction in U.S. equities still has room to extend further.

Market Focus: JOLTS Job Openings Report

Today, the market will closely watch the JOLTS Job Openings report, expected to show an increase to 7.65 million in January from 7.60 million in December.

A strong report could provide a short-term boost to the stock market, lifting equity indices temporarily. However, any upward correction is likely to be short-lived, as negative sentiment remains dominant in the market.

Daily Forecast:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

#NDX (NASDAQ 100 Futures CFD)

The NASDAQ 100 CFD contract may attempt a recovery to 19,890.00, driven by a positive JOLTS report and profit-taking from recent sell-offs. However, ongoing market negativity suggests that the index may reverse and continue its correction down toward 18,895.00.

#SPX (S&P 500 Futures CFD)

The S&P 500 CFD contract may attempt to climb to 5,700.20 following a potentially positive JOLTS report and profit-taking on previous losses. However, given the persistent bearish market sentiment, it is highly likely to resume its downward correction toward 5,521.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Euro Hits the Ceiling

Bets are now closed, ladies and gentlemen! Many have already played out. The EUR/USD's hesitation to rise following the Bundestag's approval of Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus package indicates that this

Marek Petkovich 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery for the second consecutive day after a recent decline, rebounding from a two-week low around 1.4260. Spot prices have climbed above

Irina Yanina 10:16 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Stock market pays dear cost for Washington's rhetoric

The boomerang effect: what goes around, comes around The US is retreating from globalization, and it is only a matter of time before it faces the consequences. According

Marek Petkovich 09:51 2025-03-19 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold has halted its upward movement as it attempts to consolidate at new all-time highs around $3,045, with bulls taking a pause ahead of the FOMC meeting results. The Federal

Irina Yanina 09:41 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How Might Markets React After the Fed Meeting? (Expecting a Sharp Decline in GBP/USD and a Drop in #SPX)

Today, the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's final decision on monetary policy. It is expected to bring nothing new, so the main topic will remain the same

Pati Gani 08:27 2025-03-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Wednesday, which suggests that volatility for both currency pairs may remain low until the evening. The dollar continues to show signs of weakness

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 19: The Inertial Growth Continues

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair did not attempt to correct once again. There was no macroeconomic background that day, but it is difficult to determine what is currently better

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 19: What Will the Fed Meeting Change?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade upward on Tuesday. Although the upward movement is weakening, the euro remains strong while the US dollar keeps falling. This is happening despite

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

The Euro Fires a Bazooka

The last time Germany armed itself was in the 1930s, it led to World War II. Today, German militarization is welcomed. According to Bloomberg estimates, fiscal stimulus packages worth around

Marek Petkovich 23:46 2025-03-18 UTC+2

WTI Gains Support from Rising Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

For the third consecutive day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is attracting buyers. Currently, the commodity is trading slightly above the key psychological level of $68.00, having gained over

Irina Yanina 18:24 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.