Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test of 1.1050 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the downward movement.

The euro showed a noticeable correction against the U.S. dollar, although such a sharp decline was hardly expected. This immediately drew the attention of large market participants, who promptly increased their long positions ahead of key economic data releases from the United States.

Two major economic releases — Nonfarm Payrolls for March and the unemployment rate — will have a decisive impact on the future trajectory of the currency pair. Market participants and analysts are closely watching these figures as important indicators of the U.S. economy's health. It is expected that the employment report will point to a slowdown in job growth, which could potentially weaken the U.S. dollar. The unemployment rate is unlikely to have a major impact on market sentiment, as it is forecasted to remain unchanged.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches the 1.1081 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1174. I plan to exit the market at 1.1174 and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point movement from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected as part of the ongoing upward trend, and also in case of weak U.S. data and dovish comments from Jerome Powell. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1019 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. One can then expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1081 and 1.1174.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1019 level (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.0942, where I will exit the market and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point movement from the level). Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return in case of strong U.S. data. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1081 level, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1019 and 1.0942.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually closing profits; further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually closing profits; further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to follow the overbought/oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major economic reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.