Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 146.16 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential within a bearish market. For this reason, I chose not to buy the dollar.

Later today, around the midpoint of the U.S. trading session, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. He is expected to comment on the recently imposed U.S. tariffs. This event could potentially trigger a spike in dollar volatility. Investors will carefully analyze Powell's rhetoric for any signals regarding how the Fed assesses the impact of trade disputes on economic growth and inflation. If the Chair expresses concern about the negative effects of tariffs, the dollar may weaken. On the other hand, if he downplays the risks and emphasizes the resilience of the U.S. economy, the dollar is likely to strengthen.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 145.83 (green line on the chart), with the goal of rising toward 147.52 (thicker green line). Around 147.52, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pair can be expected as part of an upward correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 144.81 level is tested twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 145.83 and 147.52 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 144.81 (red line on the chart), which is likely to trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 143.32, where I will exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure could appear at any moment today. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 145.83 level is tested twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 144.81 and 143.32 can be expected.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is crucial to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you're trading large volumes without proper money management.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market picture are a losing strategy for intraday traders by default.