Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1296 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1389.

Today's U.S. trading session will bring investors a series of key economic updates. In particular, the March Producer Price Index (PPI) will offer insight into inflation from the production side. A decline in PPI could signal a possible slowdown in consumer prices, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key gauge of consumer confidence and spending willingness. A rise in the index typically signals optimism and supports economic growth. The inflation expectations report, also from the University of Michigan, is important for shaping future inflation trends, but considering recent data, this leading indicator may not fully reflect the broader picture.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area of 1.1375 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1500. At 1.1500, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement from the entry point. A euro rally today can only be expected if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1314 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1375 and 1.1500 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1314 level (red line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1222, where I will exit and open immediate long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point retracement). Selling pressure may return today in case of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1375 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1314 and 1.1222 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – approximate target price to place a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – approximate target price to place a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – always refer to overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important Note for Beginners:

Forex beginners should be very cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major news releases to prevent getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using proper money management and are trading large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.