Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.0913 price level occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.0913 occurred when the MACD was in the oversold area, which allowed scenario #2 for a long position to play out, resulting in a rise of over 40 pips.

Weak NFIB Small Business Confidence Index data in the United States and the rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials negatively impacted the dollar's position yesterday. This allowed the euro to correct upward by the end of U.S. trading. However, the key factors shaping long-term trends still favor the U.S. currency—though Trump's actions could undermine this. For the record, no eurozone data is scheduled for today, so the upward correction in EUR/USD may be limited. That said, technical analysis indicates the potential for further euro gains after breaking key resistance levels.

In the short term, traders will focus on any news about possible trade negotiations from the EU. However, EU politicians are in no rush to make concessions and threaten retaliatory tariffs.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the entry point around 1.1080 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1157. At 1.1157, I plan to exit the market and open a sell trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback from the entry point).

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1034 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1080 and 1.1157 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1034 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0948, at which point I plan to exit the market and immediately open a buy trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move from the level). Selling pressure on the pair could return quickly today.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1080 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1034 and 1.0948 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.